Rising East Boston rents...
Could the worst be yet to come?
Amazon recently included Boston on its list of 20 cities being condidered for the site of its second headquarters. The city's proposal names Suffolk Downs in East Boston as the site. Already in the news for increased gentrification and corresponding rent increases, East Boston rents would likely see a significant increase if Amazon came and added its estimated 50,000 jobs.
By DAN SPECTOR, STEPHEN COSTA, AND JOHN lilly
Rent Increases in East Boston
We looked at rent increases in Amazon’s headquarter city of Seattle to predict the effects of a headquarters in East Boston.
South Lake Union, the neighborhood home of Amazon Headquarters in Seattle, has about half the population of East Boston. But South Lake Union has relatively fewer people per household: its roughly 20,000 residents live in 11,625 households, while East Boston's 40,000 residents are clustered in 15,453 households. If the household size decreases, it could drive rent prices, especially for one-bedroom apartments, even higher.
Three-bedroom apartments could also become significantly more expensive, which would disproportionately affect families. If rents rise in East Boston, it is likely to lead to significant displacement of current residents. It is unclear where these residents would go. According to The Boston Globe, the Seattle non-profit, Mary's Place went from filling 2,300 beds in overnight shelters in 2010 to being on pace to fill over 170,000 in 2017.
| Eastie (Present) | Eastie (After HQ2) | |
|---|---|---|
|
8600.42/mi2 current population density |
|
9449.68/mi2 projected population density |
|
40,508 current population of Eastie according to 2010 U.S. Census |
|
44,508 eastimated population if 8.9%* of Amazon HQ2 employees moved to Eastie |
In conclusion.
Given the difference in makeup between the cities care should be taken in making direct correlations between South Lake Union and East Boston. For example, there are 127 neighborhoods in Seattle and only 23 in Boston. Seattle is considered to have made a slow response to a brisk increase in demand to an already tight inventory. East Boston and surrounding communities will need to work vigorously in the five-year build up if Boston rents are to avoid similar increases should Amazon bring its HQ 2.0 to Beantown.
* Calculated using data from the Commuter Flows Report by the BPDA